Predictive modelling for COVID-19 outbreak control: lessons from the navy cluster in Sri Lanka

N. W. A. N. Y. Wijesekara; Nayomi Herath; K. A. L. C. Kodituwakku; H. D. B. Herath; Samitha Ginige; Thilanga Ruwanpathirana; Manjula Kariyawasam; Sudath Samaraweera; Anuruddha Herath; Senarupa Jayawardena; Deepa Gamge

doi:10.1186/s40779-021-00325-4

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Predictive modelling for COVID-19 outbreak control: lessons from the navy cluster in Sri Lanka

LETTER TO THE EDITOR | Updated：2023-02-28

- Predictive modelling for COVID-19 outbreak control: lessons from the navy cluster in Sri Lanka
- Military Medical Research Vol. 9, Issue 1, Pages: 138-140(2022)
- Affiliations：
  
  1.Disaster Preparedness and Response Division, Ministry of Health, 385, Rev. Baddegama Wimalawansa Thero Mawatha, Colombo 01000, Sri Lanka
  2.Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health, Colombo 01000, Sri Lanka
  3.Sri Lanka Navy, Colombo 01100, Sri Lanka
- Author bio：
  
  * novil.wijesekara@gmail.com
- Funds：
- DOI：10.1186/s40779-021-00325-4
  CLC：
- Published：2022-02
- Accepted：
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Wijesekara et al.: Predictive modelling for COVID-19 outbreak control: lessons from the navy cluster in Sri Lanka. Mil Med Res, 2021, 8: 31.
DOI：

Wijesekara et al.: Predictive modelling for COVID-19 outbreak control: lessons from the navy cluster in Sri Lanka. Mil Med Res, 2021, 8: 31. DOI： 10.1186/s40779-021-00325-4.

摘要

Abstract

In response to an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) within a cluster of Navy personnel in Sri Lanka commencing from 22nd April 2020

an aggressive outbreak management program was launched by the Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health. To predict the possible number of cases within the susceptible population under four social distancing scenarios

the COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME) was used. With increasing social distancing

the epidemiological curve flattened

and its peak shifted to the right. The observed or actually reported number of cases was above the projected number of cases at the onset; however

subsequently

it fell below all predicted trends. Predictive modelling is a useful tool for the control of outbreaks such as COVID-19 in a closed community.

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references

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